Analysis of the Outdoor Microclimate and the Effects on Greek Cultural Heritage Using the Heritage Microclimate Risk (HMR) and Predicted Risk of Damage (PRD) Indices: Present and Future Simulations

This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on cultural heritage two Greek areas for both present time and future. As is constantly evolving, continuously exposed risk damage deterioration. Therefore, museum directors boards as well national ministries must be informed so that measures practices are adapted new climatic conditions. Greece a country with immense wealth, tangible intangible, which stretches back four half thousand years. homeland important historical resources, vulnerable change. Two up-to-date indices were applied high value: Thessaloniki Delphi. In order evaluate suitability microclimate risk, Heritage Microclimate Risk (HMR) index Predicted Damage (PRD) used variables: temperature relative humidity. The was carried out three different periods, period 1980–2000 (hereafter, reference period) future periods 2039–2059 2079–2099. For period, data from sources incorporated in (observed, reanalysis, model data). simulated derived Regional Climate Model RegCM4 fine spatial resolution 10 × km. addition, emission scenario RCP4.5 model’s simulations. ideal outdoor conditions monuments also estimated presented this work. Overall, estimations revealed will higher compared meaning have adapt warmer addition adapt, showed “moderate-maximum” more often